Try the same prediction, but this time just say you’re really really sure…
DENVER – The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be “very active,” with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.
I know I’ve heard this one before. I just know it… Where have I heard this before!?
Last year, Gray’s forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a “near normal” season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The
National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.
Wow. Not just wrong. SPECTACULARLY wrong.
Of course, as usual, there’s some excuse-making going on…
Gray’s research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.
A weak to moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team.
“Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes,” Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino, “winds aren’t tearing the storm systems apart.”
Let’s face it. It’s about as possible to predict the weather as it is to predict what time you’re gonna take a crap. Most of the time you’re wrong, and either way you always end up full of shit.
via Yahoo News
[tags]hurricane, hurricanes, el nino[/tags]