Rudy Giuliani was a shoe-in to win the Republican nomination. He was polling way ahead of the other candidates, leaving people like John McCain and Mitt Romney in the dust. Everyone was fully expecting “America’s Mayor” to come out of the race as the candidate and most likely fight a tough fought election against Obama, Clinton, or Edwards.On the Democrat side, we have John Edwards. While he never polled as strongly as Rudy did, Edwards was fit to be the spoiler. In many polls, against Republicans like Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, he lead. In his speeches and in his campaign e-mails, he repeatedly reminded supporters that he was the only candidate that, according to the polls, could win this election.
It seems like ages ago that these two were talking about their grandiose plans to change the race and the White House. All it took was one primary to completely throw a monkey wrench into the greatest plans of Edwards and Giuliani and as we sit here, a mere four days away from “Super Tuesday,” both have dropped out of the race after placing poorly in all the prior primaries.It’s worth asking… What the hell happened?
Rudy Met Reality
When it comes down to it, Rudy Giuliani was never a terribly attractive candidate. In his home state of New York, through the month of January, Giuliani never once led the polls. The closest he came was a Quinnipiac poll the week of January 14th that showed John McCain and him and in a tie. In December, he was leading by as much as 22 points in New York, but as soon as McCain showed as a strong candidate and Huckabee won Iowa, it was all down hill.
Giuliani placed poorly in Iowa where Mike Huckabee won his only primary (he’s polling right now 5.7% ahead in Georgia, by the way), utterly ignored New Hampshire where John McCain got a huge kickstart and never really recovered. His strategy of putting all his eggs into the Florida basket never really materialized for him and despite relying on both the enormous number of transplants from New York to Florida and dragging out his 9/11 experience as often as he possibly could, Floridians didn’t buy into Rudy and he lost.Was it his strategy that failed him? To a degree yes, but I think a contributing factor was Rudy himself. Most out of state people jumped on the Rudy bandwagon because they remember him from his performance in such plays as 9/11: The Movie and so on. The mythical super-leader who held the city together in a time of utter chaos plays well to people outside the city to some extent. That being said, to New Yorkers, it was just one small part of a Mayorship scarred by political power grabs, corruption, and bad decisions. We knew better and we saw firsthand what others didn’t and we weren’t buying it.
Many Republicans in New York had decided to unite behind Giuliani simply because he was the populist candidate and a guy who could ride his legend into the White House. It didn’t work out that way, though, and before New York even came into play, John McCain and Mitt Romney established themselves as the front runners in a campaign likely to be a back and forth battle all the way through Super Tuesday. My guess is that John McCain will beat Romney handily, which will probably mean the beginning of the end for the conservative movement as we know it today.
Edwards Connected With No One
John Edwards had a very simple message. I’m rich, you’re not, and that means there are two Americas, so vote for me and I’ll help you to not be poor anymore. I’ll pay for your healthcare, your food, your clothes, your education, and I’ll lift the South out of its undereducated and impoverished duldrums. Ye shall all be uplifted and thine uplifter shall be me.
Problem? The country didn’t buy into the idea that a rich trial lawyer was really connected to the poor people of this country. Imagine that! Edwards didn’t really have a message other than “The government can fix all your ills,” and that doesn’t play well in the states. The reason Obama and Clinton have been the front runners for so long is that they temper their message of “Government controlled” with a bit of real-world practicality. You can’t play complete socialism 100% to the middle of America and expect it to work. In John’s case, he never got that far.
The other thing about Edwards that he caught no flack for was his reliance on New Orleans as a backdrop for his campaign. While, as Joe Biden put it, Rudy’s quotes can usually be whittled down to a noun, a verb, and 9/11, John Edwards prefers to show you Epic Fail Katrina and how he’s going to fix New Orleans. He opened his campaign there, and appropriately closed his campaign there. He also had a contest during his campaign where people would join him to work in New Orleans. Okay John, we get it. You heart New Orleans. Hate to say it, Johnny, but they probably were not going to vote for you no matter how much you tell them in that condescending voice that you’re one of them and you care about them.
No one buys the act, John. Thank you for closing the curtains on it.
Conclusion
Now that the initial shock of Giuliani’s spectacular failure has worn off, and we’re rid of Mr. “Two Americas,” things will undoubtedly get more interesting as the candidates now shift gears and focus on other targets. Either way, we’ve learned one thing… Polls don’t matter if you can’t back them up at the voting machines.
Edwards failing was no surprise to anyone. Giuliani’s failure screwed up the workings of the Republican primaries severely.
Tuesday is going to be really interesting.
