insignificant thoughts

Correlation Is Not Causation

Vinny — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 12:01:38 +0000

Correlation Doesn’t Prove Causation Republican Edition: Many Republicans point to the fact that revenues increased following the tax cuts, thereby somehow proving that the tax cuts caused revenues to rise. The reality is that to get a true answer to the question of the revenue impact of the tax cuts, one must hold all other factors constant and ask what would have happened if not for the tax cut. Judging by almost all serious analyses, the tax cuts did not have such a large enough positive impact on economic growth so as to completely pay for themselves. That doesn’t mean they were bad policy necessarily (unless you are judging policies solely on the basis of revenue maximization), but the free lunch selling of the tax cuts is not something the public should buy.

Correlation Doesn’t Prove Causation Democrat Edition: Many Democrats have recently tried to lump the currently struggling economy and the financial crisis with Bush’s tax cuts. Again, merely because the tax cuts occurred and then the recession occurred does not mean X caused Y. The same goes for the Clinton tax hike in 1993 and the booming economy of the 1990s. The technological boom was largely independent of the Clinton tax hike (i.e. the economy would have grown fast regardless). You can say that the Bush tax cuts were not good policy because they made the future fiscal situation worse than it already was, but that doesn’t mean they are responsible for the financial crisis of 2008. (You could make a better case that they are responsible for the future fiscal crisis of 2040, and you could also say the same about Bush’s senior vote-buying prescription drug bill passed in 2004.)

via taxfoundation.org

via Cat Keene.

See, this is why I don’t trust either side. Both of them are full of sugar honey iced tea.

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IT.tv Episode 210: Dear Tennessee… WTF?

Vinny — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 02:22:02 +0000

IT.tv Episode 210: Dear Tennessee… WTF? from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

IT.tv Episode 209: The Wisdom of Crowds

Vinny — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:27:38 +0000

IT.tv Episode 209: The Wisdom of Crowds from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

IT.tv Episode 208: Be Good To Your Waiters

Vinny — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 02:47:15 +0000

IT.tv Episode 208: Be Good To Your Waiters from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

Forget Something?

Vinny — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 02:26:46 +0000

An anti-immigration group is calling on the Obama administration to ensure a smooth exit for illegal immigrants who are trying to leave the U.S. due to the weak economy and Arizona’s strict new immigration law.

via foxnews.com

Notice the lack of the word “illegal” in both the title of the article and the first line.

‘Cause after all, isn’t that what all those racists are against? Immigration?

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Arizona Hotels Not Feeling Boycotts

Vinny — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 01:55:31 +0000

Arizona’s tourism industry has a target on its back, but the widespread boycotts over the state’s immigration law might not be hitting the mark.

Recent data compiled by a market research group show hotel bookings across the state — as well as in tourism hot spots Phoenix and Scottsdale — have been on the rise the past two months.

The numbers could dispel warnings from local officials that Arizona stands to lose a fortune and dampen the chances that cities and organizations will be able to compel the state to reverse its immigration law by choking its economy with a sanctions-style business boycott.

“Fundamentally, the boycotts have been unsuccessful,” said Barry Broome, president of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council.

via foxnews.com

That’s because for every armchair revolutionary who marches and boycotts, there’s someone who believes that it’s time to take a stand and they are going to Arizona and patronizing their businesses.

Money talks and Che shirts walk!

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IT.tv Episode 207: Shocking: Old Spice Doesn’t Appeal To Young People

Vinny — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 03:20:37 +0000

IT.tv Episode 207: Shocking: Old Spice Doesn’t Appeal To Young People from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

IT.tv Episode 206: Chevrolet / GM: There Should Be a Recall!

Vinny — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 00:05:37 +0000

IT.tv Episode 206: Chevrolet / GM: There Should Be a Recall! from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

“When I Get Famous, You’ll Want to Know Me”

Vinny — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:46:35 +0000

IT.tv Episode 205: Tour Guide in Kid’s World

Vinny — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 04:02:39 +0000

IT.tv 205: Tour Guide in Kid’s World from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

Twilight Moms

Vinny — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 15:54:00 +0000

via addins.wgem.com

via Cat Keene

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A Failed Social Media Campaign? Starting To Feel Like It

Vinny — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 14:27:45 +0000

Remember my trip to my Chevy dealer on July 5th?

Sure you do….

So the reason there’s no followup is because there didn’t really need to be. I spoke to the person who scheduled me a few days later to schedule a new appointment after getting a voicemail very late. Honestly, I didn’t get the voicemail because I was expecting it on my Google Voice number and somehow it weaseled its way into my office voicemail which I don’t always check and no one I work with uses. My guess is that they called me in my office because it was a work day, assuming I was in that office on that day (I wasn’t). I calmed down about not being notified and chalked it up to a miscommunication between the dealership and I, but I left the video there. I still believe, to this day, that they had an obligation to get in touch with me in some way before that appointment. Not to leave a voicemail (What if I didn’t have my phone available? What if I was out of the country?) and hope I got it one time. That’s my gripe and that’s why the video is there. They didn’t notify me. They left a voicemail and never bothered to confirm I received it. Lest you pin it on me, there was another guy in front of me even more pissed than I was. I accepted part of the blame because I was being overly reasonable, not because I agreed.

Frankly, this wasn’t the first time a scheduling snafu happened with these folks.

The first time, the person scheduling me scheduled me without checking with me and assumed the day was fine. They never confirmed the appointment, either. Then I got a lecture the next time I spoke to them about keeping appointments. Nice, right?

So back to IT.tv 185. It was recorded on July 5th as I waited for a service department that was never open in the first place to get my Traverse fixed. Of course it never opened and I had traveled to Staten Island from the Bronx (an 84 mile round-trip) for nothing on a day off after being out late the night before.

Nice.

Suddenly, out of nowhere, I started getting comments from a person who created a YouTube account on July 22. Nasty stuff, too. Fine. I’m used to it, it’s YouTube. Interestingly, he knew about a voicemail that I never mentioned to anyone; the only person who would know about it was myself and the person who scheduled the appointment. To me, that screams that he works for the dealer, doesn’t it? I called him out, he slings more invectives, and then he’s gone.

This morning, a new batch of nastiness from another person whose account was created shortly before the insults started flying.

The most interesting part, of course, is that the only way to find this particular episode of IT.tv is to search in YouTube for Manfredi Chevrolet. The view count is very low on it, so it won’t appear next to higher-rated videos. The person who found this video probably saw it flash across Manfredi’s Facebook page or they’ve fully adopted a company like Reputation Defender to monitor the internet for anything about them.

How do I know it?

Look at the search terms used to find the video:

The second one, of course, is of particular interest. “Service closed Manfredi.” Unless you were told about this video and looking specifically for it, why in God’s name would you enter that into a search box?

Exactly.

This leads me to the likely conclusion that the folks leaving nasty comments on the video are actually in some way related to Manfredi. Can I prove it? Of course not, but the evidence is pretty good. When you find an obscure videoblogger’s video by searching exactly for the terms it contains, you’re not just randomly commenting on videos.

I can’t do much with this info, of course, but look it over. See if you agree with me. I tend to think my conclusion is pretty valid: someone is engaging in a comment smear campaign because they don’t like what I vlogged about Manfredi.

If you think I’m wrong, please tell me so.

Kerry Keeps Boat in Rhode Island To Avoid Taxes

Vinny — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 04:00:38 +0000

Sen. John Kerry, who has repeatedly voted to raise taxes while in Congress, dodged a whopping six-figure state tax bill on his new multimillion-dollar yacht by mooring her in Newport, R.I.

Isabel – Kerry’s luxe, 76-foot New Zealand-built Friendship sloop with an Edwardian-style, glossy varnished teak interior, two VIP main cabins and a pilothouse fitted with a wet bar and cold wine storage – was designed by Rhode Island boat designer Ted Fontaine.

But instead of berthing the vessel in Nantucket, where the senator summers with the missus, Teresa Heinz, Isabel’s hailing port is listed as “Newport” on her stern.

Could the reason be that the Ocean State repealed its Boat Sales and Use Tax back in 1993, making the tiny state to the south a haven – like the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and Nassau – for tax-skirting luxury yacht owners?

via bostonherald.com

But remember, it’s you who aren’t paying your fair share.

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IT.tv Episode 204: When Your Enemy Says He Wants To Kill You, Believe Him…

Vinny — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 03:07:02 +0000

IT.tv Episode 204: When Your Enemy Says He Wants To Kill You, Believe Him… from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

Unexpected Outcomes Were Unexpected

Vinny — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 02:36:17 +0000

via graphjam.com

Pretty much sums it up.

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Fan Fiction

Vinny — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 20:44:27 +0000

via shoeboxblog.com

So damn true…

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IT.tv Episode 203: 3 Simple Questions About Cordoba House

Vinny — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 09:44:13 +0000

IT.tv Episode 203: 3 Simple Questions About Cordoba House from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.

Fox News: Favorite Net Of The White House

Vinny — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 02:27:18 +0000

If we’re to believe the frothing leftards, Fox News is nothing more than right-wing propaganda (while MSNBC is fair and objective at all times) and is only watched by back-water rubes in middle America who cling to guns, God, and so on.

And if we’re to believe those same frothing leftards, the Obama administration, Tom Vilsack in particular, get their pointers on how to act from Fox News and fired Shirley Sherrod because Fox News urged them to and they’re just following along.

I don’t know what’s funnier; that those two points exist in direct contradiction to each other, or that no one has bothered to point them out yet.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I Give You The Goatse Ring

Vinny — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 20:19:15 +0000

via consumerist.com

If you don’t know what Goatse is, Google it, but don’t blame me when you find out. You’ve been warned.

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IT.tv Episode 202: Oh No, Not Him

Vinny — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 03:30:34 +0000

IT.tv Episode 202: Oh No, Not Him from Vincent Ferrari on Vimeo.